Europe’s economic growth is extremely fragile
欧洲经济增长堪忧
Risk is concentrated in one country: Germany
德国身处风暴中心
When an economy contracts for two consecutive quarters, it is often considered to be in recession. European policymakers will be hoping that two consecutive quarters of growth are equally notable. Data released on August 14th showed that, in the second quarter of the year, the EU’s economy once again grew by 0.3% against the previous quarter. Although nothing to write home about by American standards, such growth is a relief after more than a year of stagnation.
连续两个季度负增长，一般认为是经济体陷入衰退的标志。欧洲政策制定者一定希望连续两个季度的正增长也有同样重要的标志意义。8月14日公布的数据显示，欧盟今年第二季度经济继续实现正增长，环比增长0.3%。虽然按照美国标准看，这样的增速并不值得大肆宣扬。但对于经历了一年多停滞的欧洲经济来说，还是让人松了一口气。
The good news does not stop there. Employment is growing, albeit more slowly than before. Wage growth is outpacing inflation, too, leading to rising living standards. In the Netherlands, which has the continent’s most up-to-date labour-market data, centrally negotiated wages rose by 7% in July, twice the pace of inflation. Union-negotiated wages are similarly strong in Germany. Nevertheless, the European Central Bank (ecb) still felt confident enough to cut interest rates in June, and is expected to do so again in September.
好消息不止如此。就业率在上涨，尽管增速有所放缓。工资增长跑过了通胀，带来生活水平的提高。荷兰拥有欧洲最新的劳动力市场数据，其7月份通过集体谈判达成的工资增长了7%，是通胀率的两倍。德国的工会谈判工资也同样强劲。尽管如此，欧洲央行仍然有足够的信心在6月降息，并预计将在9月再次降息。
Full speed ahead, then? Not quite. The continent faces a number of risks—any of which could make the picture much gloomier. The first is that demand does not look as healthy as growth figures might suggest, as is illustrated by the construction industry. Rents are rising in many of Europe’s most alluring cities: Athens, Berlin and Madrid are all seeing growth of about 10% a year. On top of this, interest rates are falling, which should boost property prices. Yet housebuilder confidence is now at the lowest it has been this year, for reasons that are not immediately clear.
接下来是否一路高歌猛进？也不尽然。欧洲大陆面临的风险也不少，其中任何一项都可能让经济前景急转直下。首先，需求并不像增长数据显示的那样健康，建筑业就是一个例证。欧洲许多最具吸引力的城市房租都在上涨，例如雅典、柏林和马德里的租金年增长率都在10%左右。此外，利率下降本应推动房地产价格上涨。然而，目前开发商的信心却降到了今年以来的最低点，原因尚不明确。
Growth in incomes should also be boosting consumption. In reality, however, “we are yet to see any meaningful pickup in real domestic demand,” observes Clemente De Lucia of Deutsche Bank. Households are mostly putting the additional money from higher pay into their savings accounts, he adds. In time, a cooling labour market could further reduce the desire to spend. As Davide Oneglia oftsLombard, a consultancy, notes, hiring has weakened in services, which has been the main source of jobs in recent years.
收入增长也应当拉动消费。然而，“并没有看到国内实际需求有任何实质性的回升”德意志银行的克莱门特·德·卢西亚（Clemente De Lucia）如是说。他补充道，居民大多将涨薪带来的额外收入存入银行。随着时间的推移，劳动力市场的冷却可能会进一步降低消费欲望。咨询公司 ts Lombard的达维德·奥内利亚（Davide Oneglia）指出，服务业的招聘势头已经减弱，而近年来服务业一直是解决就业的大户。
Governments are unlikely to support demand with extra spending of their own. Germany’s has once again almost torn itself apart over the legal intricacies of its balanced-budget rules. Negotiations are ongoing, but the result is likely to be spending cuts. France and Italy, meanwhile, are both in an “excessive deficit procedure”, which the European Commissionreserves for the most blatant violators of its guidelines. As such, fiscal policy will be a drag on growth in the years to come.
政府不大可能扩大公共支出来支持需求。德国再次因为其平衡预算规则的法律复杂性而陷入分歧。谈判仍在进行中，但结果很可能是削减政府开支。与此同时，法国和意大利都处于“过度赤字程序”中，该程序是欧洲委员会针对严重违反其相关财政赤字规定的国家设置的。因此，财政政策将在未来几年拖累经济增长。
The next worry concerns a single country: Germany. It has barely grown since 2019. More recently, its exports fell by 4.4% in June on a nominal basis, compared with a year earlier, and surveys indicate that worse is to come. Industrial companies that have failed to modernise now face a bigger challenge from China, as low-cost electric vehicles (evs) pour out of its factories. Germany’s long-term prospects are also concerning: other than Lithuania, no country in theoecdis set to lose more workers to retirement, relative to new entrants into the labour force. The country is big enough that its economic woes will also drag on Europe’s growth.
另一担忧仅与德国相关。自2019年以来，德国经济几乎没再增长。最近的数据表明，德国6月出口较去年同期名义上下降4.4％，调查显示，更糟糕的情况还在后面。随着中国工厂源源不断地产出低成本电动汽车，未能及时完成现代化转型的工业企业如今面临着更大挑战。德国长期前景同样不容乐观：在经合组织（OECD）国家中，除了立陶宛，没有哪个国家因退休而流失的劳动力相对于新进入劳动力市场的人数差距更大。德国经济体量很大，其经济困境足以拖累欧洲经济增长。
As it stands, Europe appears to be pulling off a soft landing, even if its economy never truly soared in the first place. Inflation has fallen to 2.5%, just above theecb’s target, and the continent has enjoyed two consecutive quarters of growth. But the euro zone’s policymakers would be wise not to take too much cheer from this. Plenty of dangers must first be navigated before the celebrations can begin.
就目前情况而言，欧洲似乎正在实现软着陆，尽管其经济并未真正起飞过。通胀已降至2.5％，仅略高于欧洲央行的目标，且经济连续两个季度实现正增长。不过，欧元区仍然危机四伏，政策制定者们最好不要半场开香槟。
